MARKET COMMENTARY
Q4 ‘23 started off on weak footing, as investors were concerned that interest rates would remain “higher for longer” due to the
unexpected strength of the economy, but encouraging progress on inflation cooling throughout the quarter and Fed officials’
reaction to the data helped markets retain their momentum into the end of the year. Despite the many twists and turns, 2023
was a strong year with equity market gains in the double digits (S&P 500 +26.3%) and bonds rallied to reverse earlier losses,
driven by the view that the Federal Reserve may have successfully engineered a soft landing.
Throughout the quarter, inflation edged lower, the labor market continued to normalize, consumer spending remained healthy,
and the U.S. economy posted solid growth. At its November meeting, the Federal Reserve kept its policy rate at a range of
5.25%-5.50%, and though noting that the mission of bringing inflation back to the 2% target was not yet completed, it messaged
that its interest rate hiking cycle had come far and that the policy rate was at or near a peak level, which was further reiterated
by the updated Summary of Economic Projections report in December which indicated it anticipates 75 bps of cuts in 2024
(pulling forward an additional 25 bp cut versus only 50 bps in the September projections). Investors quickly interpreted these
developments as a bullish sign for stocks and bonds, and financial markets rallied despite efforts by Fed members to reiterate
that the Committee remained data-driven, and that additional hikes were still on the table if necessary.
Up until mid-October, the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index was on track to post an unprecedented third
consecutive calendar year decline, with the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields peaking at 5.22% and 4.99%. Then the idea of
a soft landing became more realistic, and the market started to price in further rate cuts and following the Fed’s dovish pivot during
the quarter, the 2-year and 10-year finished 80 bps and 69 bps lower to 4.25% and 3.88%, respectively, and high yield bond
spreads narrowed by 64 bps. The duration rally over the final months of the year was so pronounced that the Agg climbed
+9.3% from the 10/19/23 trough through year-end, to finish full-year 2023 up +5.5%.
The prevailing themes throughout the year in equity markets have included U.S. outperforming non-U.S., large cap
outperforming small cap, and growth outperforming value, as well as the dominance of the “Magnificent Seven” group (Google,
Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Tesla, and Nvidia) which accounted for more than half of the S&P 500’s total return for the
year, though most of this outperformance occurred during 1H ‘23. In Q4, the reversal in treasury yields and the updated timing
of rate cuts helped kickstart a nine-week rally of consecutive gains, making Q4’s performance the strongest for the year and
the broadest. Both the cyclically oriented Dow (+13.1%) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (+13.8%) outperformed the S&P 500
(+11.7%) and small cap stocks (+15.1%) outperformed large caps by over 3%. Additionally, non-U.S. equities, represented by
the MSCI EAFE Index and MSCI Emerging Market Index, finished the quarter up +10.4% and +7.9%.
ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENT COMMENTARY*
Hedge funds finished 2023 on a positive note, as the HFRI Fund-of-Funds Composite index rose +3.4% during the fourth
quarter and +6.4% for the year. Volatility fell substantially during the quarter as the probability of an economic “soft-landing”
increased due to softer inflation data. High beta ‘Equity Hedged’ and ‘Event Driven’ strategies were among the best-performing
strategies for both the quarter and year. The HFRI Equity Hedge (Total) Index and HFRI Event-Driven (Total) Index rose by
+5.5% and +5.8% during the quarter, respectively, and +10.4% and +10.8% during 2023, respectively. Conversely, Macro was
among the worst-performing strategies for the quarter and the year as the HFRI Macro (Total) Index fell -1.0% during Q4 and
-0.6% during 2023. Among the “all-weather” strategies, ‘Multi-Strategy’ hedge funds also provided a strong year. For the
quarter and year, the HFRI RV Multi-Strategy Index rose +4.2% and +7.8%, respectively. Similar to the various indices, there
was a dispersion of performance across the Family Management platform. We are pleased with the performance of the existing
managers and plan to introduce new managers in 2024.
*Data taken from HFRI (Hedge Fund Research Indices) as of January 10th, 2024
This material contains the current opinions of Family Management Corporation and its affiliates (collectively, “FMC”), which may change without notice. This material is distributed for informational purposes only. It is not a recommendation or offer of any investment or strategy. Nothing herein shall be considered a solicitation to buy or sell, or an offer to buy or sell, to or from any persons in any jurisdiction where such solicitation, offer, purchase, or sale would be unlawful. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed. FMC provides no guarantees regarding the performance of any investment or strategy. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance and individual client results will vary. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any publication, without the express written permission of FMC.